A lot of great nominations in this list.. 16 nominations for Sinners, which is a record. 13 nominations for One Battle After Another. Somehow, F1 is nominated for best picture. One thing I didn’t have on my bingo card: Eddington was entirely snubbed with no nominations. (That was one of my favourites last year.) I’m also surprised that The Phoenician Scheme was completely ignored when it seemed a shoe in for best costumes and cinematography.

A lot of these categories are really tough. The Best Actress category is a real competition; I’ve have trouble picking between Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You and Emma Stone in Bugonia. Best Actor is similarly stacked. Timothée Chalamet is apparently remarkable in Marty Supreme, which I haven’t seen yet. Dicaprio was fantastic in One Battle After Another. Michael B. Jordan is operating on a whole other level with Sinners, and I sort of hope he wins the category.

Also, holy smokes, the best director category is stacked. No idea how I’d pick between Coogler, Paul Thomas Anderon, Chloé Zhao, or Josh Safdie.

If I had to make a few guesses in categories I’m confident in:

  • Sean Penn seems likely for his supporting role One Battle, and if he doesn’t get it, I’d guess it has little to do with merit in the role and mostly because he’s not well-liked. (Or so I hear. I don’t really know or care.) I would love it if Benicio del Toro won for One Battle, though.
  • I think it’s a toss up for One Battle and Sinners for best cinematography. If somebody else wins, I suspect the vote was split and third place got it.
  • If Sinners doesn’t win for best costume design, the Academy has a problem.
  • If F1 has a shot at any category, it’s best editing. Even then, I am not certain.
  • Music is a tight category this year. I think it will go to Sinners, which was a very musical film. The soundtracks for Bugonia and One Battle were both phenomenal too.
  • I hope ​“I Lied to You” (Sinners) wins best original songs, but I could see ​“Golden” (KPop Demon Hunters) winning the category too.
  • Best picture this year probably goes to One Battle. Paul Thomas Anderson probably wins best director too. But both categories are filled to the brim with great options.
  • If Avatar doesn’t win for best special effects, I don’t know what we’re doing here. James Cameron is doing mind blowing work with that franchise.
  • Train Dreams goes home with no wins.

I find the Oscars are kind of hard to predict; it’s not a meritocracy. Even if it were, art is subjective. I’m curious to see who wins.

There are also a couple films on the list I’m eager to see once we can get them in our home theatre. I’ve been looking forward to Marty Supreme and Hamnet for the better part of a year. I also need to make some time for Frankenstein, which I’d like to see but honestly keep forgetting about. And KPop Demon Hunters is very near the top of our Netflix queue as well.

Ten years from now, I think we’ll find the obsession with One Battle and Sinners to be a little much. Both are great movies, but they’re each bloated in every sense of the word. Around that same time, I think smart cinephiles will start asking why Black Bag was snubbed this year. I just wanted to make sure it was clear I asked first.